Hot Stocks: TechnologyOne, Kogan.com, Serko

US markets edged higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 posting a sixth straight gain despite early weakness following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The modest 0.09% rise in the S&P was mirrored by a flat Nasdaq, while the Dow advanced 137 points, helped by an 8% rebound in UnitedHealth. The downgrade brought Moody’s in line with other agencies, citing concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability and rising debt servicing costs. Treasury yields spiked early before retreating, with the 30-year hitting 5% and the 10-year climbing above 4.5%.

Investor sentiment remains cautious amid tariff uncertainties under President Trump’s trade policy, which analysts warn could pressure corporate margins and stall earnings growth. In Europe, the UK and EU announced a major post-Brexit agreement to ease trade frictions and strengthen defence ties, though some political opposition remains. Back in Washington, Republicans advanced Trump’s sprawling tax and spending bill through committee, though its future remains uncertain. Meanwhile, commodities traded mixed and the Australian dollar is hovering around 64.56 US cents, as local markets await a likely interest rate cut by the RBA, with ASX futures pointing to a strong open.

Kogan.com (ASX:KGN) reported strong growth across its Kogan.com platform for the four months to 30 April 2025, with gross sales up 24% and active customers up 38% year-on-year, reaching 2.7 million. The company reinvested heavily in marketing (up 39%), driving ecosystem expansion and supporting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.7%. However, group profitability was tempered by challenges at subsidiary Mighty Ape, which continued to struggle with technical issues following a website upgrade. While Kogan.com’s revenue rose 8.4%, Mighty Ape’s revenue declined 22%, leading to a 37.5% drop in group adjusted EBITDA. Nonetheless, early signs of recovery were seen at Mighty Ape, and the company expects improved group margins in the coming months as issues are resolved and marketing investments mature.

Serko Limited (ASX/NZX:SKO) delivered a 27% increase in total income to NZ$90.5 million for the year ended 31 March 2025, driven by growth in its Booking.com for Business partnership, which saw completed room nights rise 29% to 3.3 million and active customer numbers also increase 29%. Despite a net loss after tax of NZ$22 million due to non-cash impairments and acquisition-related costs, Serko achieved positive EBITDAFI of NZ$2.8 million and narrowed its free cash outflow. The pre-acquisition business was cash-generative, contributing NZ$7.4 million in free cash flow. Looking ahead, Serko expects FY26 income to reach NZ$115–123 million, underpinned by North American expansion and continued Booking.com momentum, though spend is forecast to increase as investment continues.

TechnologyOne (ASX:TNE) reported record results for the half-year ended 31 March 2025, with profit before tax rising 33% to $81.9 million and total revenue up 19% to $291.3 million. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) surged 21% to $511.1 million—achieved 18 months ahead of target—driven by its SaaS+ offering, which bundles enterprise software and implementation into a single fee. Net Revenue Retention stood at 118%, and UK ARR grew 50% following key wins including Islington London Borough Council. The company reaffirmed its goal to double in size every five years and lifted full-year profit growth guidance to 13–17%. R&D investment rose 21% to $68.8 million, and a record interim dividend of 6.6cps was declared.